BAR Forecasting · Updated November 2026
Sensitivity Analysis vs Scenario Analysis: How Many Assumptions Are Changing?
Sensitivity changes one important assumption. Scenario analysis changes a coherent package of assumptions.
Sensitivity analysis
Change one important assumption while holding others constant to identify which variables drive the outcome.
Scenario analysis
Change several assumptions together to model a coherent future state such as a recession or upside case.
Best and worst cases
Scenario analysis often compares base, downside, and upside cases.
Why use both
Sensitivity identifies individual drivers. Scenario analysis shows how assumptions can interact.
The takeaway
Sensitivity changes one variable. Scenario analysis changes a package of assumptions.
Related Summit guides
FAQ
Is a worst-case model usually scenario analysis?
Yes when several assumptions change together.
Can sensitivity identify key drivers?
Yes.
Are these the same as probability analysis?
No.